VAT Increases and Snow: The Perfect Storm

It appears that two elements in play in the last couple of months might help create an atmosphere which will result in an increase in the number of retail failures over the next year.  One of these is man made and the other a natural phenomenen.
What George Osbourne could not have contemplated at the time of the budget when he decided to increase VAT from 17.5% to 20% was that the UK was going to be hit with the worst winter for decades with much of the country practically shut down during what should have been the busiest shopping period.  Whilst the post-Christmas sales might have recouped some of the losses there is no doubting that retailers will have been hit extremely hard and the VAT increase coming immediately after this hit is likely to cause further difficulties - at Christmas people often over extend themselves but with Christmas now over people will be less likely to buy even if they did not over extend themselves.
For retailers this is very much a double blow.  It would be wrong to say that the VAT rise will stop people spending but it will limit how much they can buy and/or affect how much of the money spent goes to the retailers' bottom lines.
So, what does this mean?
Unfortunately this must increase the risk of retailers considering or being forced into restructurings.  There is already news of HMV closing 60 stores; Clinton Cards and Mothercare have issued negative profit statements with more retailers still to report.
Historically business failures tend to peak after a recession rather than during it as businesses that have used up their reserves just to survive do not return to health quickly enough to replenish those reserves in time.  The snow and VAT rise may have created the perfect storm to ensure that history repeats itself in 2011.